These headline figures, however, don’t tell the whole story, as a decline in Chinese demand over the past five years has acted as a large drag on global phosphate fertilizer shipments. The temporary curtailment measures appear to be working as NOLA phosphate prices started to slowly climb by the end of December. Price in US Dollars per Metric Ton. Due to the current circumstances related to COVID19, the Phosphate Days 2020 organizing committee has agreed to make the registration conditions for the event more flexible and encouraging: Students and academics will participate for free with no registration fees; For Sponsors and exhibitors, we offer the best prices packages That plant is being brought back into production but in December Mosaic announced it was cutting production at its central Florida facilities by 150,000 tonnes per month. Farm economics remain OK as government payments (e.g., the market facilitation program) helped to offset what was for many growers an incredibly challenging 2019. Dublin, Nov. 16, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Phosphate: Types, Applications and Regional Markets" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. The wet weather also led to record-setting planting delays and vaulted acres certified with the USDA’s Farm Service Agency as “prevented planting” to a new high of nearly 20 million (more than double the peak of nearly 10 million in 2011). It is likely that there will once again be slow but meaningful production volume improvements from potash mine ramp-ups in 2020, but it is also likely that demand will snap back to a level closer to historical trend growth, with farmers worldwide looking to replace depleted soils, led by a rebound in the U.S. and Southeast Asia, the latter benefitting from a 78% increase in palm oil prices between their November 2018 low and early January 2020. The company said phosphate margins had become unsustainable, dropping below US$200 per tonne for the third time in the last decade. So even though the ramp-ups of greenfield projects in Canada and Russia fell well short of market expectations on the supply side, the market still moved into surplus. This circa $65 per ton decrease was in line with blend grade potash price declines elsewhere in the world, so once again the U.S. market retained its distinction as one of the lowest-priced markets in the world. Casablanca – Phosphate fertilizer prices are expected to increase during the first half of 2020 after reaching a low level, according to the OCP Group’s forecasts. Prices fell by approximately $150 per ton in 2019 — from $385 down to around $235. Also helping to bring the supply side into balance with demand are production curtailments beginning in the second half of 2019 from the two large North American producers as well as the other four largest offshore suppliers in order to manage inventories that had been rising earlier in 2019. JCMR recently Announced Phosphate Rock study with 200+ market data Tables and Figures spread through Pages and easy to understand detailed TOC on “Global Phosphate Rock Market. Mosaic is hopeful the slowdown in exports combined with curtailed production of the ingredient will soon bring supply and demand back into balance. Last year saw unprecedented precipitation totals and record flooding across a broad swath of the country, while lock closures on parts of the U.S. river system set records for consecutive days of closure. Moroccan producer OCP Group, the world’s largest phosphate producer, announced in September that it was reducing production by 500,000 tonnes. Hot Sale Agriculture Mono Ammonium Phosphate 12-61-0 Map Fertilizer Price Water Soluble The report studies global market for phosphates, using 2019 as a base year and providing estimates for each year of the forecast period, from 2020 to 2025, with projections of compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Prices have dropped so low that leading manufacturers of the product have been forced to curtail production. The company said the market has become much tighter in recent months. China falls short of U.S. trade commitments, Don’t bother lifting it up with the auger, take it over the top, X-Steam-inator makes sweet deal with Honeybee, Pull the big planter with the big 4-wheel drive tractor, Driving force behind Claas equipment company dies. Andy Jung is the Director of Market and Strategic Analysis with The Mosaic Co. See all author stories here. Our baseline potash demand forecast shows shipments rising nearly 5% this year despite markets like the U.S. starting the year with elevated channel inventories that were a function of the back-to-back-to-back below-average application seasons. The Mosaic Company, which is the second largest producer, also announced in September it was decreasing production by 500,000 tonnes at its Louisiana plant. After growing at a modest compound annual rate of about 1.5% from 2014 to 2018, we estimate that global shipments of the leading solid phosphate products (DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP) fell back about 3% to 68.5 million tonnes in 2019. We believe that there is significant pent-up demand for fertilizers globally and the U.S. market in particular. Exporters have been flooding the market with product. 12/31/2020 | 2:34 PM CST ... After falling in December, phosphate prices began to recover this month due to production cutbacks domestically and internationally. The research study provides estimates for Phosphate Rock Forecast till 2025*. Through the first couple of weeks of 2020, phosphate prices have already risen about $30 per ton. Phosphate: Wholesale phosphate prices are nearly 19% lower than last planting season though retail costs are slightly higher, reflecting sourcing issues due to China’s lockdown early in the year. This is a change of 1.01% from last month and 14.94% from one year ago. From a retail pricing standpoint, phosphate and potash prices were broadly flat in 2019. Through the first couple of weeks of 2020, phosphate prices have already risen about $30 per ton. This meant that the relatively high inventory levels throughout distribution and retail channels were unable to be cleared, which exacerbated the price weakness seen earlier in the year. Saudi producers were busy shipping to Brazil, Australia, the US and India. “Mosaic will not produce at high rates when we are unable to realize reasonable prices.”. Tight supply and an uptick in demand benefited the fertilizer amid pandemic lockdowns. We anticipate that a tightening global supply/demand balance will see wholesale prices recovering throughout the year. Battery prices declined 13 percent between 2018 and 2019 and another 13 percent by 2020. In addition, the lack of domestic market opportunities has allowed Chinese producers to keep their export volumes relatively stable at 10 to 12 million tonnes per year despite several plant closures due to environmental or other reasons. The nation's brand leader in ag retail communication. Whereas only about 15% of North American potash demand is typically met via offshore imports, primarily through NOLA, about one-third of phosphate fertilizer demand is met in this fashion. Strong demand driving up phosphate prices: Mosaic May 21, 2020 Markets. With regard to potash, there is no clear catalyst for a breakout to the upside or downside, and we expect that there will be little more than seasonal price swings for that nutrient. Sep 17, 2020 Average retail fertilizer prices continued to be mixed the second week of September 2020, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. After years of low and relatively stable prices, phosphate rock prices are In the case of phosphates, barring another record-breaking wet spring, we see no way that prices can be sustained at the level seen at the end of 2019, and if the past is any guide, they will snap back sharply. municipalities, Baking a cake can be therapeutic, relaxing — and tasty, Success in the show ring seen as win for breed, Alberta farmer turns ag plastic into fence posts, Radio widened Manitoba farm boy’s horizons, Novel trait clarification could prove significant, Grain stats reporting turns 100 in Canada, Alberta farmers lose carbon credit program, Call container crisis what it is — market failure, America’s probabilities, rodeo viability, canola volatility. Mulder said many factors can influence future prices but he is comfortable telling growers they likely won’t be any worse off securing their phosphate supplies early this year rather than waiting for spring. Monthly price chart and freely downloadable data for Rock Phosphate. Global inventories are not burdensome, though there are pockets — e.g., in the U.S. — which will need to be worked through. DAP prices (a common phosphate fertilizer) have risen 35–40% in the last few months and over 55% since its lows of a year ago. Chinese and Australian producers supplied cargoes to India and Pakistan and DAP prices edged upwards. Compared to last spring, reported farm diesel prices are 71 cents per gallon lower, or down 27%. And could they persist or reassert themselves in 2020? Benchmark LME aluminium continued to gain ground in the last week of January, scaling a two-week high of $2,020 a tonne amid an uptick in demand by consuming industries at spot markets. Phosphate DAP prices jumped 23% in 3rd quarter of 2020, supported by strong demand from key crop-growing regions. This tees up a couple of key questions: What were the key drivers that put prices under pressure? Now is a good time to buy phosphate fertilizer, say industry experts. Outside of the U.S., demand for phosphate and potash nutrients also faltered in a couple of major markets, resulting in global shipments of the leading P&K products retreating from the record demand achieved in 2018. Demand prospects for phosphate look solid this year on the back of still-OK global agricultural economics and the agronomic need to replace nutrients. Growers might be able to offset part of the cost of a hopper bottom bin with the savings they realize on escalating prices, said Mulder. “A third consecutive disappointing application season in North America has led to continuing high inventories and price weakness,” Mosaic president Joc O’Rourke said in a news release. Demand prospects look solid this year on the back of still-OK global agricultural economics and the agronomic need to replace nutrients. Linville agreed that spring 2020 is setting up for a strong application season that could finally result in a rebalancing of supply and demand. While it was anticipated that the fall 2019 harvest in North America would likely be behind schedule due simply to the later planting, the continuation of a wet weather pattern (and extremely wet in parts of the Northern Plains) once again led to a below-average fertilizer application season in fall 2019. Outside of U.S. weather-driven demand issues, demand was also notably weak in Southeast Asia, where a collapse in palm oil prices drove a roughly 30% cut in potash demand in Indonesia/Malaysia. 197 phosphate price per ton products are offered for sale by suppliers on Alibaba.com, of which phosphate accounts for 32%, phosphate fertilizer accounts for 6%. Offsetting the demand contraction in China were extraordinary demand gains in a whole host of markets around the world, most notably in other parts of Asia and in Latin America. | START CLAIMING YOUR BENEFITS NOW, The Western Producer | Response to COVID-19, HOT TOPICS | SOYBEANS - REGISTER NOW TO SAVE YOUR SEAT, Prices of the nutrient may be as low as the market can bear for 2020, retailing at $575 to $600 per tonne. That time appears to have arrived. U.S. phosphate imports were down 244,000 tonnes or 16 percent for the first half of 2020 versus the last half of 2019. Dan Mulder, fertilizer director with Federated Co-operatives Limited, is advising retail co-ops to start stocking their shelves at today’s prices. Global Phosphate Rock Market allows you to get different methods for maximizing your profit. As an example of the challenges on the U.S. inland waterways, Mosaic was unable to offload a phosphate barge at its Pine Bend, MN, facility until August, when this would typically have taken place by early April. Prices of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers will revive a little in early 2020, but remain below year-ago levels, Rabobank said, while seeing some “support for price recovery” in potash too. Phosphate prices in New Orleans, Louisiana, (NOLA) in late December 2019 were the lowest they have been since December 2006. Once the spring rush is on there could be regional shortages leading to logistical premiums as product has to be railed into Western Canada from places such as North Carolina, Florida and Louisiana. The effect has been a 48% increase in phosphate imports from those countries between 2017 and 2019, from 2.1 million short tons to 3.1 million short tons per year, according to Mosaic. That’s not really conducive to a lot of demand,” said Linville. “They had seen the writing on the wall,” said Josh Linville, fertilizer analyst with INTL FCStone. We anticipate that a tightening global supply/demand balance will see wholesale prices recovering throughout the year. Once the spring 2020 application season winds up — a season which we expect to see U.S. farmers plant 93 to 95 million acres of corn (up approximately 4 million year over year [YoY]), 85 to 87 million acres of soybeans (up approximately 10 million YoY) and 45 to 46 million acres of wheat (flat to 1 million acres higher YoY) — we expect demand to rebound for P&K as growers look to catch up on missed applications in seasons prior. Early control would ease ASF damage in U.S. New vaccine technology helps control diarrhea in piglets, Strong wheat exports expected to continue, Dissecting Big Five: all genes present in nature, not the same plant, Clubroot spreads to more Alta. A depreciation of the Brazilian real led to higher domestic crop prices, which has driven demand. Asia. Back-to-back application seasons (fall ’18 and spring ’19) led to missed fertilizer applications and an inordinate number of barges, particularly phosphate, stuck on the Mississippi River, unable to reach their intended destinations to off-load. One of the main culprits was U.S. weather. This is the fundamental argument for prices to remain range-bound in a narrow band, as incremental gains in supply, plus inventories carried over from 2019, should be absorbed by a market exhibiting such a sharp turnaround in demand. “When there is a shortage of supply the price typically goes up and it may go up substantially,” said Mulder. “We thought this will be the year these guys will get ahead of it,” he said. This sets the stage for a potentially big step up in Chinese corn imports. To reiterate, this dynamic was largely a function of the weather rather than any structural change in market dynamics. In light of the current pandemic, CRU Phosphates 2021 will take place as a virtual conference from 23-25 March 2021. Our crop nutrient affordability metric, the ratio of a wholesale fertilizer price index and a crop price index, suggests fertilizer prices are very affordable at present and thereby should provide a very attractive value proposition. In early 2020, farm diesel prices were $2.50 per gallon before sliding to $2.25 per gallon by the end of February (figure 5). Africa, Markets, News, North America, Phosphate, Phosphate Rock November 25, 2020 Desktop The U.S. Department of Commerce said on Tuesday (24 November) it would set preliminary duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia, after launching Morocco Phosphate Rock Price is at a current level of 83.33, up from 82.50 last month and up from 72.50 one year ago. Exacerbating the price impact was a common feature of many commodity markets: Buyers pulled back from the market and instead drew down inventories as they awaited a “bottoming out” of the market price. The bottom line is that signs point toward a meaningful tightening of the supply/demand balance as we move through 2020, which should translate to a recovery of wholesale prices. “I don’t think you’re going to do yourself any harm by getting product in position. Even with this relatively modest phosphate demand forecast in 2020, there is little incremental new supply coming to market, and it would appear that the shift to lower exports from China seen in the second half of 2019 will continue into 2020 on the basis of recent producer announcements. For almost 10 years phosphate fertilizer prices have been in a downtrend but in just the last four or five months prices have started to rise dramatically. However, he noted that soggy soils in the U.S. Midwest could lead to spring flooding of the Mississippi River, disrupting barge shipments of phosphorus up from New Orleans. “I’m afraid we go from nobody will buy a thing to everybody wants to buy everything all at the same time,” said Linville. Nitrogen, phosphate prices to see some early 2020 revival. China’s exports tailed off in the second half of 2019. A wide variety of phosphate price per ton options are available to you, such as phosphate, phosphate fertilizer. Phosphate prices began to rise in mid-2020, reversing a year of losses. MEMBERS GET MORE! In the past, prices have risen by C$80 to $150 per tonne from the winter lows to the spring highs. Linville said that is because there is a temporary glut of the ingredient in North America due to three consecutive poor application seasons. Prices of the nutrient may be as low as the market can bear for 2020, retailing at $575 to $600 per tonne Now is a good time to buy phosphate fertilizer, say industry experts. Mosaic has a different take on why phosphate prices have been on the rise lately. The Western Producer is Western Canada’s most respected farm paper. Wholesale granular MOP prices started 2019 by trading at about $290 per ton fob New Orleans (NOLA) barge and moved steadily lower before closing the year a bit north of $225 per ton. That could compress the spring application window, further pressuring prices higher. As with potash, U.S. wholesale prices were pressured by consecutive weather-interrupted application seasons — fall ’18, spring ’19, and fall ’19 — but the price decline was exacerbated by excess import supplies pushed into a U.S. river system that was contending with record-setting high water throughout the first half of the year (and beyond). This offset rising demand in a few of the other large markets around the world (e.g., Brazil and China). These are certainly significant improvements, but the rate of progress seems to be slowing. Costs have fallen globally in 2020, but Russia and Brazil have seen the most substantial declines, all of which will flow through to downstream phosphate fertilizer dynamics. There are also problems in Australia where persistent drought is limiting what farmers will spend on fertilizer. Typically, global demand increases by more than 2% per annum. Strong and stable for over 95 years, The Western Producer has earned the trust of farmers and advertisers alike. The sharp depreciation in foreign exchange rates and a global decline in hydrocarbon fuel prices are the major drivers of change in 2020 phosphate rock production costs. The "Phosphate: Types, Applications and Regional Markets" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.. What are the 2020 market drivers? The contributions made by … Retail phosphate prices in Western Canada were around $575 to $600 per tonne earlier this week. “Things were getting nasty.”. Our reputation for reliability stems from the transparency of our robust methodology, which is supported by intraday market updates. Tuesday 20 October 2020 11:22. Moreover, we believe that corn and soybean prices likely have upside upon the signing of a phase one trade agreement between the U.S. and China or upon potential downward revisions to U.S. production estimates from the USDA’s resurveying of growers that was announced with their Jan. 10 report. Mosaic said it isn’t only a demand problem. After marching higher in 2018, wholesale phosphate and potash prices came under pressure last year as increasing supplies outpaced tepid demand. The reason for the discrepancy in price movements (wholesale vs. retail) is explained by the fact that retail prices tend to lag wholesale prices, and there are significant additional costs — logistics, handling, warehousing, insurance, and other carrying costs, as well as value-added services — that moved higher in 2019 and acted as an offset to the wholesale price declines. There are a couple of important details to consider that didn’t receive as much attention as the negative headline: 1) There was no mention of pulling back on current ethanol demand, so this decision is not actually negative for demand but rather more of a maintaining of the status quo; 2) The decision to suspend the rollout is quite likely a function of Chinese corn inventories being lower than what many analysts have been assuming. Potash demand forecast shows shipments rising nearly 5% this year. Such demand deferral sustains the downward momentum of pricing until such time that buyers must return to the market to replenish their supplies and/or they sense a unique opportunity to secure volume at a bargain price. Week after week, it delivers the information farmers have come to rely on. Growing demand and limited supply caused phosphate rock prices to soar in 2008. We forecast that global shipments of high-analysis phosphate products will climb about 2% YoY to 70 million tonnes (the growth rate is near 3% excluding China). The fall of 2019 was setting up to be a good application season in the U.S. with low phosphate prices and good grain prices. “It looks like the market is convinced that a price floor has been found,” said Linville. While demand was faltering, incremental new supplies continued to be brought to market from several new and existing production facilities around the world. But a late harvest prevented fall application of phosphate and other fertilizer ingredients. Companies 15 Jan 2020 by Mike Verdin. Phosphate prices are reaching lower levels, making the input more attractive for producers and less so for this phosphate mine in Mdhilla, Tunisia. Prices for a lower concentration phosphate … For almost 10 years phosphate fertilizer prices have been in a downtrend but in just the last four or five months prices have started to rise dramatically. Phosphate is the second most important fertilizer product behind nitrogen, accounting for 1.3 million tonnes of annual fertilizer sales of 6.5 million tonnes in Western Canada. From a retail pricing standpoint in 2020, it is possible that there could be modest relief, particularly if wholesale prices under-perform our expectations (for example, if demand does not materialize as anticipated), but we’re not expecting a step-change in pricing, either up or down. The ratio measuring the amount of corn, soybean and wheat it takes to buy one ton of phosphate is lower than it has been in years. Phosphates supply in the fourth quarter was tight from some regions. EU … The report studies global market for phosphates, using 2019 as a base year and providing estimates for each year of the forecast period, from 2020 to 2025, with projections of compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Massive U.S. corn stock outlook weighs down market May 21, 2020 Markets. The NOLA price is considered the starting price for North American phosphate. CropLife 100: Find Out Who Made the List of the Top 100 U.S. Ag Retailers, CHS Agronomy Announces Expanded 2021 LIFT Program, How to Effectively Manage Phosphorus Levels in the Soil, Manufacturers Push for Versatility, Safety in Fertilizer and Seed Tenders, How Ag Retailers Are Uniquely Positioned to Help Growers Maximize Their Farm Data, Satshot, Ninja Ag Collaborate to Deliver Added Value to NDVI Imagery. CCA reports: Applications now open to CYL Mentorship program, Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | © 2021, Western Producer Publications Limited Partnership. “My God, animals are dropping dead out of the sky from heat exhaustion. By the end of March, the most recent data, prices fell to an average of $1.74 per gallon. “With fertilizer-depleted soils and rising agricultural commodity prices, we continue to expect robust demand and strong business conditions in the year ahead,” O’Rourke said in the news release. Additionally, there were incremental supplies brought to market from the ramp-up of new projects in Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Global shipments of MOP in 2018 were around 67 million metric tonnes, whereas 2019 saw shipments drop back to less than 65 million or a 3% year-over-year decrease, with North America accounting for perhaps half of the net 2 million tonne decline. It’s also worth mentioning China’s ethanol program after markets reacted negatively to the news in early January that China was suspending the rollout of their nationwide E10 blending mandate. Historically, Aluminum reached an all time high of 3271.25 in July of 2008. China is estimated to have shipped out nearly 10 million tonnes of phosphate in 2019 and Morocco another six million tonnes. And there could be a really good upside for you,” he said. phosphate and potassium fertilizer, and to prepare forecasts for the period 2016-2020, the results of which are presented in this report. Excluding China, the average rate of demand growth has been nearly 4% per annum, inclusive of the decline seen in 2019. CRU is a leader in fertilizer price assessments and we publish comprehensive phosphate prices from around the world on a weekly basis. Wholesale phosphate prices are thusly subject to greater volatility. ABR confirms product branding strategy Thursday 24 September 2020 12:00. 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