Phosphate: Wholesale phosphate prices are nearly 19% lower than last planting season though retail costs are slightly higher, reflecting sourcing issues due to China’s lockdown early in the year. After growing at a modest compound annual rate of about 1.5% from 2014 to 2018, we estimate that global shipments of the leading solid phosphate products (DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP) fell back about 3% to 68.5 million tonnes in 2019. Africa, Asia, Europe, News, North America, Pacific, Phosphate, Phosphate Rock, South America December 8, 2020 Desktop Growing demand for phosphate rock as an animal feed additive is a significant factor driving the phosphate rock market demand, says a new report by China is estimated to have shipped out nearly 10 million tonnes of phosphate in 2019 and Morocco another six million tonnes. U.S. phosphate imports were down 244,000 tonnes or 16 percent for the first half of 2020 versus the last half of 2019. After years of low and relatively stable prices, phosphate rock prices are That’s not really conducive to a lot of demand,” said Linville. Through the first couple of weeks of 2020, phosphate prices have already risen about $30 per ton. In light of the current pandemic, CRU Phosphates 2021 will take place as a virtual conference from 23-25 March 2021. With subpar demand and unneeded supplies being pushed into the market, stocks throughout the fertilizer distribution channel swelled. | Reuters/Zoubeir Souissi photo, Phosphate prices become attractive for producers, Palm oil leading the way higher for oilseed prices, Lower soybean and corn prices for 2020: analyst, Demand holds steady for 2019-20 wheat crop, Measurements and data can’t eliminate uncertainty for farmers, Travel restrictions won’t affect foreign workers: federal sources, WGRF funding announcements build research capacity, Information is power, and producers want some, Proposed code of practice for grain creates a stir. Casablanca – Phosphate fertilizer prices are expected to increase during the first half of 2020 after reaching a low level, according to the OCP Group’s forecasts. In the case of phosphates, barring another record-breaking wet spring, we see no way that prices can be sustained at the level seen at the end of 2019, and if the past is any guide, they will snap back sharply. The effect has been a 48% increase in phosphate imports from those countries between 2017 and 2019, from 2.1 million short tons to 3.1 million short tons per year, according to Mosaic. ... CRU Fertilizers Top 10 calls for 2020 - Mid-year review. Dublin, Nov. 16, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Phosphate: Types, Applications and Regional Markets" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. Once the spring rush is on there could be regional shortages leading to logistical premiums as product has to be railed into Western Canada from places such as North Carolina, Florida and Louisiana. Phosphate DAP prices jumped 23% in 3rd quarter of 2020, supported by strong demand from key crop-growing regions. Our crop nutrient affordability metric, the ratio of a wholesale fertilizer price index and a crop price index, suggests fertilizer prices are very affordable at present and thereby should provide a very attractive value proposition. Additionally, there were incremental supplies brought to market from the ramp-up of new projects in Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Through the first couple of weeks of 2020, phosphate prices have already risen about $30 per ton. China’s exports tailed off in the second half of 2019. For almost 10 years phosphate fertilizer prices have been in a downtrend but in just the last four or five months prices have started to rise dramatically. With regard to potash, there is no clear catalyst for a breakout to the upside or downside, and we expect that there will be little more than seasonal price swings for that nutrient. Nitrogen, phosphate prices to see some early 2020 revival. Last year saw unprecedented precipitation totals and record flooding across a broad swath of the country, while lock closures on parts of the U.S. river system set records for consecutive days of closure. Updated to Q4 2020. Even with this relatively modest phosphate demand forecast in 2020, there is little incremental new supply coming to market, and it would appear that the shift to lower exports from China seen in the second half of 2019 will continue into 2020 on the basis of recent producer announcements. The nation's brand leader in ag retail communication. As with potash, U.S. wholesale prices were pressured by consecutive weather-interrupted application seasons — fall ’18, spring ’19, and fall ’19 — but the price decline was exacerbated by excess import supplies pushed into a U.S. river system that was contending with record-setting high water throughout the first half of the year (and beyond). The research study provides estimates for Phosphate Rock Forecast till 2025*. Phosphates supply in the fourth quarter was tight from some regions. In addition, the lack of domestic market opportunities has allowed Chinese producers to keep their export volumes relatively stable at 10 to 12 million tonnes per year despite several plant closures due to environmental or other reasons. “With fertilizer-depleted soils and rising agricultural commodity prices, we continue to expect robust demand and strong business conditions in the year ahead,” O’Rourke said in the news release. The sharp depreciation in foreign exchange rates and a global decline in hydrocarbon fuel prices are the major drivers of change in 2020 phosphate rock production costs. Outside of U.S. weather-driven demand issues, demand was also notably weak in Southeast Asia, where a collapse in palm oil prices drove a roughly 30% cut in potash demand in Indonesia/Malaysia. He believes prices have bottomed out and will be rising as spring approaches. In other worlds, global demand could make up the decline seen last year, as well as grow at that historical average of two-plus percent. We anticipate that a tightening global supply/demand balance will see wholesale prices recovering throughout the year. Once the spring 2020 application season winds up — a season which we expect to see U.S. farmers plant 93 to 95 million acres of corn (up approximately 4 million year over year [YoY]), 85 to 87 million acres of soybeans (up approximately 10 million YoY) and 45 to 46 million acres of wheat (flat to 1 million acres higher YoY) — we expect demand to rebound for P&K as growers look to catch up on missed applications in seasons prior. 197 phosphate price per ton products are offered for sale by suppliers on Alibaba.com, of which phosphate accounts for 32%, phosphate fertilizer accounts for 6%. We forecast that global shipments of high-analysis phosphate products will climb about 2% YoY to 70 million tonnes (the growth rate is near 3% excluding China). The Mosaic Company, which is the second largest producer, also announced in September it was decreasing production by 500,000 tonnes at its Louisiana plant. Linville said that is because there is a temporary glut of the ingredient in North America due to three consecutive poor application seasons. Growers might be able to offset part of the cost of a hopper bottom bin with the savings they realize on escalating prices, said Mulder. This tees up a couple of key questions: What were the key drivers that put prices under pressure? However, he noted that soggy soils in the U.S. Midwest could lead to spring flooding of the Mississippi River, disrupting barge shipments of phosphorus up from New Orleans. Prices have dropped so low that leading manufacturers of the product have been forced to curtail production. Mosaic said it isn’t only a demand problem. It’s also worth mentioning China’s ethanol program after markets reacted negatively to the news in early January that China was suspending the rollout of their nationwide E10 blending mandate. Week after week, it delivers the information farmers have come to rely on. “Indeed, the financial comfort of farmers in relation to the low costs of fertilizers as well as the production reduction decisions declared first by OCP, followed then by Mosaic, […] Sep 17, 2020 Average retail fertilizer prices continued to be mixed the second week of September 2020, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. Morocco Phosphate Rock Price is at a current level of 83.33, up from 82.50 last month and up from 72.50 one year ago. JCMR recently Announced Phosphate Rock study with 200+ market data Tables and Figures spread through Pages and easy to understand detailed TOC on “Global Phosphate Rock Market. While demand was faltering, incremental new supplies continued to be brought to market from several new and existing production facilities around the world. The fall of 2019 was setting up to be a good application season in the U.S. with low phosphate prices and good grain prices. Now is a good time to buy phosphate fertilizer, say industry experts. That time appears to have arrived. “I’m afraid we go from nobody will buy a thing to everybody wants to buy everything all at the same time,” said Linville. Still, a high level of inventories in LME and Shanghai-bonded warehouses kept prices under pressure. The report studies global market for phosphates, using 2019 as a base year and providing estimates for each year of the forecast period, from 2020 to 2025, with projections of compound annual growth rate (CAGR). By the end of March, the most recent data, prices fell to an average of $1.74 per gallon. The contributions made by … That plant is being brought back into production but in December Mosaic announced it was cutting production at its central Florida facilities by 150,000 tonnes per month. | START CLAIMING YOUR BENEFITS NOW, The Western Producer | Response to COVID-19, HOT TOPICS | SOYBEANS - REGISTER NOW TO SAVE YOUR SEAT, Prices of the nutrient may be as low as the market can bear for 2020, retailing at $575 to $600 per tonne. “We thought this will be the year these guys will get ahead of it,” he said. Typically, global demand increases by more than 2% per annum. Africa, Markets, News, North America, Phosphate, Phosphate Rock November 25, 2020 Desktop The U.S. Department of Commerce said on Tuesday (24 November) it would set preliminary duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia, after launching And there could be a really good upside for you,” he said. So even though the ramp-ups of greenfield projects in Canada and Russia fell well short of market expectations on the supply side, the market still moved into surplus. Phosphate prices began to rise in mid-2020, reversing a year of losses. Retail phosphate prices in Western Canada were around $575 to $600 per tonne earlier this week. Battery prices declined 13 percent between 2018 and 2019 and another 13 percent by 2020. The company’s phosphate-based fertilizer sales rise by 15% year-on-year in 3Q20. The NOLA price is considered the starting price for North American phosphate. Potash demand forecast shows shipments rising nearly 5% this year. Costs have fallen globally in 2020, but Russia and Brazil have seen the most substantial declines, all of which will flow through to downstream phosphate fertilizer dynamics. In the past, prices have risen by C$80 to $150 per tonne from the winter lows to the spring highs. But a late harvest prevented fall application of phosphate and other fertilizer ingredients. Strong demand driving up phosphate prices: Mosaic May 21, 2020 Markets. The bottom line is that signs point toward a meaningful tightening of the supply/demand balance as we move through 2020, which should translate to a recovery of wholesale prices. Demand prospects look solid this year on the back of still-OK global agricultural economics and the agronomic need to replace nutrients. Andy Jung is the Director of Market and Strategic Analysis with The Mosaic Co. See all author stories here. Offsetting the demand contraction in China were extraordinary demand gains in a whole host of markets around the world, most notably in other parts of Asia and in Latin America. “It looks like the market is convinced that a price floor has been found,” said Linville. Hot Sale Agriculture Mono Ammonium Phosphate 12-61-0 Map Fertilizer Price Water Soluble 12/31/2020 | 2:34 PM CST ... After falling in December, phosphate prices began to recover this month due to production cutbacks domestically and internationally. Early control would ease ASF damage in U.S. New vaccine technology helps control diarrhea in piglets, Strong wheat exports expected to continue, Dissecting Big Five: all genes present in nature, not the same plant, Clubroot spreads to more Alta. The reason for the discrepancy in price movements (wholesale vs. retail) is explained by the fact that retail prices tend to lag wholesale prices, and there are significant additional costs — logistics, handling, warehousing, insurance, and other carrying costs, as well as value-added services — that moved higher in 2019 and acted as an offset to the wholesale price declines. MEMBERS GET MORE! Our reputation for reliability stems from the transparency of our robust methodology, which is supported by intraday market updates. Wholesale granular MOP prices started 2019 by trading at about $290 per ton fob New Orleans (NOLA) barge and moved steadily lower before closing the year a bit north of $225 per ton. Price in US Dollars per Metric Ton. DAP prices (a common phosphate fertilizer) have risen 35–40% in the last few months and over 55% since its lows of a year ago. It is likely that there will once again be slow but meaningful production volume improvements from potash mine ramp-ups in 2020, but it is also likely that demand will snap back to a level closer to historical trend growth, with farmers worldwide looking to replace depleted soils, led by a rebound in the U.S. and Southeast Asia, the latter benefitting from a 78% increase in palm oil prices between their November 2018 low and early January 2020. Prices for a lower concentration phosphate … Global Phosphate Rock Market allows you to get different methods for maximizing your profit. CropLife 100: Find Out Who Made the List of the Top 100 U.S. Ag Retailers, CHS Agronomy Announces Expanded 2021 LIFT Program, How to Effectively Manage Phosphorus Levels in the Soil, Manufacturers Push for Versatility, Safety in Fertilizer and Seed Tenders, How Ag Retailers Are Uniquely Positioned to Help Growers Maximize Their Farm Data, Satshot, Ninja Ag Collaborate to Deliver Added Value to NDVI Imagery. Mosaic is hopeful the slowdown in exports combined with curtailed production of the ingredient will soon bring supply and demand back into balance. And could they persist or reassert themselves in 2020? Tuesday 20 October 2020 11:22. Mulder said many factors can influence future prices but he is comfortable telling growers they likely won’t be any worse off securing their phosphate supplies early this year rather than waiting for spring. Prices fell by approximately $150 per ton in 2019 — from $385 down to around $235. Given the sub-par demand environment, even the modest incremental new supplies seen in 2019 were sufficient to push global supply/demand fundamentals into a state of surplus, thereby driving the falloff in global benchmark prices. Wholesale phosphate prices reached their lowest level in 13 years, while potash slipped back toward the low levels seen in 2016. Linville agreed that spring 2020 is setting up for a strong application season that could finally result in a rebalancing of supply and demand. Wholesale phosphate prices are thusly subject to greater volatility. We believe that there is significant pent-up demand for fertilizers globally and the U.S. market in particular. He too believes now is a good time for farmers to purchase the crop input. Exporters have been flooding the market with product. Asia. “Mosaic will not produce at high rates when we are unable to realize reasonable prices.”. 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